0:10The escalation of the war between Iran and Israel which included Iranian strikes on Israel on Sunday followed by Israeli strikes against Iran are a stark illustration that the conflict remains volatile and unpredictable.
0:26Iran attacked after Israel carried out bombings in southern Beirut which Iran condemned as a breach of the ceasefire agreement. Donald Trump desperate to avoid a looming global depression caused by Iran's prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz demanded Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cease further attacks on Tehran and other Iranian cities.
0:52This request, however, has provoked a furious backlash within Israel and further isolated Netanyahu politically.
1:01Israel faces a dilemma. Does it ignore Washington to continue provoking Iran with its attacks in Lebanon openly sabotaging any ceasefire agreement or does it accept its defeat in Iran and Lebanon where its troops are suffering significant casualties from Hezbollah's fiber optic drones. The far right in Israel is calling for open revolt in defiance of Washington. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has demanded Israel level dozens of buildings in southern Beirut suburbs for every Iranian missile fired at Israel. Israel's National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir announced Tehran must burn.
1:48Where will Israel go from here? Will a cessation of hostilities with Iran even be possible or have we entered a kind of long war with periodic strikes and counter strikes as the world economy crashes? Joining me to discuss these questions is Alister Crooke, a former British diplomat who served for many years in the Middle East working as a security advisor to the EU special envoy to the Middle East as well as helping lead efforts to set up negotiations and truces between Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and other Palestinian resistance groups. He was instrumental in establishing the 2002 ceasefire between Hamas and Israel.
2:33He is also the author of resistance, the essence of the Islamist revolution, which analyzes the ascendancy of Islamic movements in the Middle East.
2:44So, Alister, let's begin with where we are.
2:48Uh Iran has made it very clear from the inception of the ceasefire that attacks had to stop.
2:56Uh Israeli attacks had to stop. In Lebanon, uh Israel called for the evacuation of parts of Beirut.
3:06Um Iran responded by firing missiles into Israel, which apparently didn't cause much damage, although who knows. Uh Israel fired back.
3:17Uh where are we?
3:19>> Uh well, we're essentially in a new phase of the war. Um which reflects we can go back to that, but it reflects the sense um in Iran um that no deal is likely to be forthcoming. Uh and therefore, what they are moving towards is what I call escalatory deterrence.
3:46Um which is that every time there is attack on them, whether it is by the US Navy or Hormuz or if it's by Israel in Lebanon, uh they will not only respond, but they will move a step up the escalatory ladder. They will move up one step. And so then if there's another attack, then they move up further. So they've been deploying this um in Hormuz against the American naval vessels.
4:21Um just a couple of days ago the the US Navy um attacked a a vessel belonging to Iran, fired a Hellfire missile into its engine room, and incapacitated it.
4:36So um that is one part, and then Iran reacted by attacks in Bahrain, the effects of which you've probably seen, and I'm told in fact the effects of which were far more damaging than we've been have been explained to us that there was some special equipment there in the naval base uh which was very expensive, and which was destroyed, and they wonder how Iran knew of its location.
5:08Um the CENTCOM are assuming I'm told that it must have been provided to them by Russia or China, but I doubt it. I would think that the Iranian intelligence is is good in a place like Bahrain, which is 80% Shia anyway. So um uh so that's one element of it. So that's a straightforward equation. Um be attacked and respond fire for fire effectively. Then um the more problematic one is is Lebanon.
5:43And I if I have a if I can, I need to explain why Lebanon is so problematic.
5:50And it is because of the 180° shift in military doctrine and also political doctrine in in in alliance with us that took place after the 7th of October.
6:08Before that, um Israel was largely um guided by the Ben-Gurion doctrine, which was that Israel was a small country, small population, small um economy, and therefore it couldn't afford a big military. It could It was beyond its reach, and therefore Israel needed to stay within its borders and um rely on reservists for its main small professional force plus reservists.
6:40And it was also Clausewitzian in Ben-Gurion's concept in the in the sense that um use of force was a means to political settlements and not an end in itself, not just simple destruction.
6:56But after the 7th of October, the idea was implanted and it's been reported extensively in parts the Hebrew parts of the Israeli um press, which we follow um regularly, um in in that the the idea was that what happened on the 7th of October was a a holocaust. It wasn't, but they are calling it and thinking it a holocaust.
7:27And they are thinking that the holocaust that we all know is a holocaust was actually not simply an event in the past, but something that is present now, that is a threshold.
7:43a threshold which can be breached anytime and so they shifted from that Ben-Gurion idea doctrine 180 degrees and adopted what they call permanent security. And permanent security means that you do not allow any threat to arise that might now or in the future attack you.
8:11And that that idea came from Germany, not surprising originally, and has been adopted. And why that is so important is because it suggests, and this is the word they use, that it is security to the root.
8:33To the root translated means even children and women, you know, because they could bring up another generation that could be a threat to us.
8:45I'm saying this because what I'm trying to explain in the Israeli view, which is the current doctrine of the government, but also magnified by particularly by the Messianic element who also want to see, if you like, a greater Israel and that a greater Israel should come about by force of arms. It should just simply forcefully take the territory and by that means establish redemption and the Messiah's return. So these two have come together in in a strange alliance. I mean, the Israeli army keeps saying, you know, we don't quite know how we're in alliance with the Messianic element, but that's the reality of what what what it is.
9:37And in in this way, of course, therefore, Hezbollah is a threat that they see must be eliminated at root and not allowed to exist in the area proximity to the northern towns or those towns that lie south of the border and extend down into the Galilee.
10:03And and so um when um Iran produced this first equation, a sort of >> [clears throat] >> loose equation, no ceasefire ceasefire at all or no ceasefire, which was supposed to include Lebanon and supposed to include the Palestinians as as well. And that had been agreed that was in when was it? The 6th, 8th of April ceasefire agreement and was established and the um mediators all said, "Yes, this is part of the agreement." Um but now the Israelis are saying, "This does We can't allow this to stand.
10:47We cannot have the idea that if we take action in Lebanon to secure our northern towns, which are half empty, the inhabitants have largely fled, if we can't secure our towns, um then we must break the link that Iran, unfortunately, this is the Israeli perspective, Iran has linked events in Lebanon to the main, if you like, relationship between Iran and the United States and the prospect of a deal or not.
11:25And they don't want that linkage to take place.
11:29Um so when Netanyahu was told by Trump, "Look, um you know, you can't bomb Beirut."
11:39Um he didn't say you can't bomb Lebanon, but he said you can't stop it. Turn back, you know, send them back.
11:47When when when that happened, Netanyahu um was met with a tsunami of protests across the board from Israelis, from the I mean secular Israelis, from the opposition leaders as well, who said, "We cannot let this linkage exist."
12:13Uh is Israel must have the ability to operate anywhere it chooses under this new security um a doctrine, even though in Lebanon, as the security officials openly admit, they don't have a strategy for how to deal with Lebanon, and it is going badly wrong for them. They don't um the buffer zone didn't work 20 years ago, and it's certainly not working um now. Uh and instead of which they're suffering heavy casualties as they are still in South Lebanon, still destroying towns, clearing towns out. Um they are suffering heavy casualties um from Hezbollah, which are using new um um uh drones with a cyber optic um connection,
13:14um which are exacting large casualties.
13:18I can't There's no figures for the casualties, but I estimate roughly about eight to 10 casualties on the Israeli side uh per day. And so um for was trying to explain why Lebanon has become neuralgic in this equation because it goes to the very crux of this new doctrine that Israel has adopted the doctrine of permanent security security to the root whether it is Iran whether it is in Syria whether it is in West Bank Gaza.
14:00This is the new the the new the the new doctrine and this is now being challenged it seems first of all by Iran having succeeded in linking it in the ceasefire arrangements and telling and Trump having to admit it and Trump having to take action with Netanyahu and so now the big pushback is coming back and people are telling Netanyahu in Israel listen you've got to go on attacking Lebanon you can't stop you've got to keep going we will not accept this direct linkage.
14:39And what is Netanyahu's choice he can he can object but as I I I'm trying to say that you know it's presented in the press a lot as if there's a sort of rivalry between Netanyahu and Trump and it's all about you know who who's in charge of whom and who's subordinate to whom it's not that it goes to the heart of Israeli thinking and it goes also to if you like the very essence of this new new thinking and this new thinking is increasingly under criticism and Netanyahu is in something of a crisis because the present poll show he he's not likely to win elections as things stand.
15:32He still hasn't got a pardon arranged by Trump.
15:36The Likud is sort of fragmenting, but the most important thing is that the army is disintegrating.
15:43The head of the chief of staff went to the cabinet and said, "I want to put up 10 red lights to you."
15:51Uh the IDF is in the point of implosion.
15:55It just won't go on. It cannot go on. We are fighting these forever wars across the Middle East and you don't we haven't the people and we haven't the resources. And the army is also falling apart because of poor discipline and a lack of morality. And so there's a real real structural problem. Um and people are saying there are some voices.
16:24I won't say they're large number, but some people are saying, "Look, there's no alternative. We need to go back to the Ben-Gurion original doctrine. We can't go on pretending we're a sort of great power able to wield military force across the whole Middle East and across Iran as well."
16:48>> But there is a divergence between Trump and Netanyahu and that Trump really does not want to pay the dire economic consequences that come with a prolonged closure of the strait, which is why he wants some kind of a ceasefire agreement. And Netanyahu's policy is to resume a bombing campaign of Iran to do to Iran what it has done to Southern Lebanon or Gaza or Syria or you could go back to Iraq. Isn't that correct?
17:23>> I I would actually put it more specifically that I'm I'm not sure that Netanyahu can will be able to remain in power if he does not continue to attack Lebanon.
17:35Um and this is the real problem facing um Trump. I think probably Trump is looking for a way out although he doesn't seem to be able to find it. I mean my understanding from Iran is there's no deal in in in prospect at the moment anyway. This is there are the gaps are too great. Uh and also from their perspective this whole this whole political diplomatic approach has really disintegrated.
18:11You know because even yesterday Trump was saying of course a deal is near but Iranians are not going to get any resources. They're not going to get any their money back until it's all finished and we're not going to allow and we're going to keep the blockade on Hormuz until the end of the end of this very long process which occurs well after the long ceasefire and then the sides would supposedly would supposedly talk and but essence [clears throat] says no.
18:46Well, anyway, whatever um assets frozen assets Iran owns, we're going to give them to the Gulf states for to for in reparations. So the the the Iranians really see this whole you know there isn't a political um there's no political coherence or structure. Um and so um you know, yes, they keep sending messages by mediators, but sometimes the mediators are in themselves somewhat problematic.
19:21They put a very Panglossian approach attached on messages going to the Iranian side in the in the hope of helping to get a solution laid out. But nonetheless, it has created quite a lot of confusion within Iran and and and and problems as consequence. So, they don't see any they don't see I mean, what is Trump going to do and what is he going to do about Israel? I mean, people talk about the Reagan example and that you know, Reagan told Netanyahu, you know, stop.
20:02You've got to back off.
20:04Um, but it's not clear to uh Iran whether that's possible because as I say, they they the the whole thinking has changed. And suddenly, you know, as much as Iran is a problem, Lebanon is even greater problem because these Hezbollah drones are hitting the northern townships every day and the people there are complaining bitterly at at the government and saying, you know, where is really where's where's our where's our protection? Where are we being supported? So, I'm sure you know, we know from the past has been I mean, first of all, I mean, you know, from going right back, Netanyahu was very quick off the mark um to to to support
20:57Biden. And that really galled Trump from from from long long way back. I'm not suggesting there's any love there, but what was quite interesting I saw is that Smotrich, minister uh of Netanyahu, was saying, "Look, actually, you know, all this limited exchange of missiles, that's another equation, by the way, this limited exchange of missiles, you know, maybe it wasn't a reflection of a maybe it was more theater uh than open conflict because maybe Netanyahu um persuaded Trump that, you know, attacking um Iran and with missiles and pushing back hard on Lebanon would help push Iran towards negotiations
21:51and um make them more open to that. I personally believe that would be an extraordinary conclusion to draw and totally wrong, but nonetheless, that's what the minister was suggesting quietly on the side that it was maybe just a ruse to mostly theatricals. I mean, theatricals and a real dislike of each other, probably, too.
22:19But I think for the time being, Trump probably needs Netanyahu because um and that's why he's working so hard to get him support, because actually, I mean, the situation in in Israel, it seems to me, is being very very very divided. And what happens?
22:40Netanyahu's not well. He He looks not well, but he isn't well, I think. Um and uh his party is coming apart.
22:51And it's quite possible that the machine that he's put into place over 20 and more years could implode.
22:59>> [sighs] >> Who Who then would be in charge? Who would be, if you like, uh the able to address Washington and the CIA and Congress from from uh from Israel. Many of the main officials at the moment speak no English and I don't think there are any sort of people with a sort of weight and understanding or the knowledge of how America functions to easily fill fill the gap.
23:29So, he's got he has a a certain leverage there. And of course, Iran has leverage, too, because they have sitting on their doorstep um a huge amount of energy infrastructure and other infrastructure. Um and they promised, you know, if they're attacked, escalatory steps up the ladder against that infrastructure.
23:55So, it's Trump, I think, in in in many ways he's put him- himself in a box.
24:02>> [snorts] >> He's not going to get Hormuz opened in in the way he um in defines it. He's not going to get the 340 kilos of 60% enriched uranium uh back from Iran.
24:19Um so, uh where's the victory? How is he going to present this?
24:24Yet, if he doesn't do that, I mean, his poll ratings um are are deteriorating very very fast and almost entering a sort of uh crisis point. I I understand from I was listening to Robert Barnes, who was saying that the polling by um Barris and other pollsters was given to the White House, which showed that even with, you know, massive funding from um the the Jewish billionaire class, um it would still not be sufficient to rescue the Republicans and Trump at the midterms. Of course, that's speculation.
25:10But I'm just saying there is a sort of slight I think panic in the air from what I understand in Washington about uh so what's what's what's the way out of this? Because, you know, um just a ceasefire, but how long will that last? I mean, and that's all that I can see that, you know, people, mediators, and so on are talking about is a very very elementary basic um you know, >> [clears throat] >> freezing of the situation as it is and kicking everything that is substantive, you know, months away down the line of negotiations.
25:53>> But time is running out in the sense that countries like Japan, even the United States, are drawing down their strategic reserves.
26:02Uh even with with that uh drawdown, you've seen, especially with the price of diesel, has risen, I think by over 50%. Gasoline has risen. I mean, they don't time is not on the side of of the US.
26:21>> You're absolutely right, and it's I mean, a catastrophic situation at the moment, which is barely, you know, under the surface. It's all under the surface because you don't see much about it in mainstream press about how close we are.
26:36Uh inventories are never been as low.
26:40Uh the strategic reserve is sort of at sludge level, as I understand it. So I think this is the point. How what what is going to be the way out? I think finally this thing will um uh uh you know, come to sort of some sort of conclusion um when Europe falls over the economic cliff.
27:01And that's the point at which things, you know, there's I've always found, unfortunately, it's not a great thing to say, but in politics, you know, pain is a great transformer. And then suddenly people start changing that that their view and saying, "Well, oh, well, maybe we could live with Hormuz as it, you know, under Iranian. I mean, we could find a relation." I don't know, but it seems to me that is the thing that can shift it, but waiting for waiting for Iran to give up and Hormuz and to deliver to Trump the uranium, I mean, they're just waiting for Godot. It's not going to happen. So, I think that's
27:42going to be when when the thing becomes crystallized when when we fall [clears throat] off, unfortunately, the economic cliff, which I think should maybe even, you know, uh this month.
27:56>> Yeah, I've read economists, pretty sober economists, who are saying by June uh you know, we're in which is, of course, Now, where we are [laughter] that that uh we're you know, headed for really catastrophic, not just a recession, but a global depression.
28:17>> Yes. It seems so because, you know, people keep forgetting getting it's the supply lines. It's the helium. It's the fertilizers. All of these things that um have been suspended during this uh this period in Hormuz, but they are impacting the tech industry, and they are impacting many parts of of of of of of the life. Aluminum, for example. I mean, you know, but food prices are certainly going to go up because, you know, this is the This is the main you know, food producing season. And I I think you you're in America, but I understand that American farmers are in dire trouble um with um price of diesel
29:05for their tractors and and and uh and also fertilizer. Yeah. And it's the same, of course, for Europe, no difference. So, um inflation is going to go up and therefore interest rates are going to go up. And so, this is going to be quite painful. Mortgages will be um adjusted up whenever, you know, uh uh the they're allowed to be adjusted up.
29:30So, you know, we are on the edge of the cusp and I think that may be, you know, unfortunately, the only thing that is going to sort of loosen it up because uh one way or another, Trump has put himself into a box. He has to have a deal that is better than Obama's. That is clearly a win for him. Shows he was being tough and got a a victory from it.
29:57But the, you know, it was always hoped that there could be something like Venezuela, that there would could be a sort of military thing that could be done. In, boom, out.
30:08And then he would be back and then he before the markets opened on Monday to announce, you know, a great success and markets would be soaring uh uh away. Um but, you know, it is proved impossible to find the, I mean, the Pentagon have been trying to think of how they can do a quick operation. And the last attempted it in at Isfahan when um there was an attempt to try uh the and take um the some enriched uranium which America believes is in one of the Isfahan tunnels.
30:51I don't know how secure their intelligence is on that because I remember seeing what I thought was the removal of most of that enriched uranium from Fordow just before the the bombings by by Trump on the nuclear infrastructure. I don't know where it's gone. I mean, it may be in Pickaxe Mountain or something which is even deeper and less accessible. But I mean, an operation like that and they tried that in Isfahan. We haven't been told the full details, but I understand you know, because there always, you know, two to tango in any military operation, shall we say, that I mean, there were a lot of 250, 300 special forces,
31:42many aircraft. We We have heard from the Pentagon that the number of aircraft involved or involved and were downed.
31:51The The The Iranians said, you know, spotted this coming. They knew about the airport being, you know, used there. And so, the whole thing was ambushed. And I think Trump is very frightened by what Joe Green has been saying to him very publicly. And he said, "Listen, if you go in to Iran, if you go boots on the ground in Iran, they will take prisoners. You'll have hostages. You'll be just like Clinton. And you'll never live it down."
32:23And I'm told that, you know, this is, you know, really seeped into to Trump's consciousness about the dangers of, you know, first of all, exposing air assets too readily because the it's clear that the Iranians have more sophisticated air defenses than they had in the 12-day war because the [snorts] Pentagon itself was saying we are having radar lock-ons of a sort we haven't seen before. And even in this last exercise where it's promoted, it's promoted wildly that Israel went in and bombed all these targets in Iran.
33:16My settled conviction is I even know the sort of the missile they were using, but it was fired from Iraq. It was a standoff operation of cruise missiles fired from Iraqi airspace. They didn't go into Iranian airspace. In this last you know over this weekend skirmish.
33:42>> So you have a looming global economic meltdown.
33:49You have an Israeli government that refuses to halt its attacks on Lebanon. We should be clear they are obliterating southern Lebanon. They're doing to southern Lebanon what they have done to Gaza. You have an expansion by Israel into Gaza.
34:12Netanyahu of course as you mentioned said that he would seize 70% but he also conceded that that was just the start.
34:23Uh how is it going to play out in terms of regional security and how is Iran going to respond because from the inception of the ceasefire, they've made it very clear. If you don't want us to attack your Gulf allies, you have to stop attacking our allies in the region and in particular in Lebanon.
34:52>> Uh that's exactly right. Um I think the as I say there are these two great unknowns which is you know, because you can never predict economic crisis for when they're going to start exactly.
35:08Otherwise, you'd be a very rich person.
35:11But um one is the economic crisis and maybe it started last Friday when there was a sudden blip on the markets where we saw sea of red taking over when people saw the um the statistics labor statistics The other thing that I think it it is clear is the growing crisis uh inside Israel.
35:40And the questioning because you know, when people are saying just to underline it, when senior defense and security officials in Israel are saying, you know, Israel is in a trap.
35:59I mean, we are getting involved in these forever wars.
36:04We're getting bogged down in Lebanon, in Gaza, and Syria, and and we'd like to get bogged down in in Iran, and you know, we don't have the means to get out of it. We are in a trap of our own making.
36:24And that the only thing we can do is to go back to the wisdom of Ben-Gurion who said, you know, Israel should stay within its own borders because it wasn't big enough um to take on the whole of the Middle East. And these people, I mean, are beginning to say, and this is what is really important, they're saying, you know, maybe we have to have a root and branch consideration of what is Zionism and what what we mean by that today. We cannot just go on simply, you know, expanding and uh and increasing and taking territory by force which then we're obliged to hold by force and hold by uh force of arms, of our military. We can't just go
37:15on unless we are overextended.
37:18The Chief of Defense Staff told the cabinet, reportedly in the Hebrew press, that um you know, to do what we're doing now would take us to have six or seven IDFs besides the one we already have.
37:33We'd need that many more men to make this uh to make our present commitments even feasible. Now, I'm not trying to suggest this is imminent, something is happening, but I'm just saying that is another uh possibility of unexpected uh affairs taking place because the Israelis have been very disappointed um that the whole grand plan for Iran has completely failed. It's a strategic failure. They I mean, they won't say that in public in an English language program, but they're saying that in the Hebrew press that this has been a complete strategic failure, which is correct. It has been a a failure. None
38:21of their aims have been achieved. In fact, what it has shown, and again they're hugely reluctant to sort of really address this, is the complete intelligence failure upon which it was all based. Um possibly with one mitigating alternative idea. But one I mean but the the the idea was that, you know, Iran was a house of cards, and that all one had to do is sort of Trump could just do a we go in, decapitate, um attack a few buildings, and then the whole thing would collapse and fall down, and that the Kurds would surge in and, you know, establish a mini state, and that would be the beginning of the
39:12breakup of Iran into a series of ethno-sectarian mini states instead of Iran as as a state. And I mean, the Kurds didn't cooperate. Um and there was no real uprising. I mean, there was, you know, a temporary thing, which went back, you know, because everyone sort of dates all this to the um that meeting that The New York Times reported that was um uh I think um what was it in in February or something.
39:51Um but actually the real meeting that had decided on this plan uh had taken place, according to the the the Hebrew-speaking reporters that were with Trump, took place on the 29th of January. Um uh 29th of December at Mar-a-Lago, when there was a summit, private summit between uh Trump uh and Netanyahu. And Netanyahu then said, "Listen, you know, you've got to do it because uh what you got to do, forget the nuclear thing." I mean, it was quite surprising. He said, "It's not the nuclear thing. It's the missiles.
40:27The priority has to be the missiles, not nuclear thing. These new missiles are not just a replacement by Iran. It is an entirely new um concept. It is a new paradigm that we're dealing with.
40:43And once they have that umbrella in place, we can't do anything in the future. So, this is what you must do." Um and the date was fixed as according to the the press, it was changed later, but that was what, you know, you can find um reported in by several, you know, senior commentators that were in in the party going to uh tomorrow logo uh with the prime minister.
41:14So, uh I you know, this was the main exercise.
41:20And it's completely failed. I mean, Iran has nearly all of its missiles in in in intact. Um um they're replacing many of them. But mostly the missile cities, the entrances were blocked up by attacks by um America uh and Tomahawk missiles or what have you. Uh but they've all been cleared. There are some like, I think it's called the Tabar Mountain um anyway, which is about 400 m deep, which has got a railway tracks and missiles come along to the entrance and then are fired straight out of from their um from their railway carriage um uh towards uh Israel. Some of those um have been attacked 25 times
42:18and they're still firing missiles undisturbed. Half an hour after the Israeli attack, missiles are fired out of silos deep inside the mountain coming straight up through vertical areas. And I mean, it's not me saying just saying this from Israelis. This is what the Americans who are making this has been uh uh uh being the case. So, it has been a strategic failure.
42:45And so, one way or another um you know, Israel is going to have to think of a post this period strategy after after Iran after this war with Iran, what is going to be the strategy of of of Israel? And is it viable for us to go on you know, destroying Syria and Lebanon and Yemen and wherever else we we feel the need um or or or we're going to have to think very carefully about um where we go.
43:26I can't tell you if and when that's going to stop, but it's already there. It's in in in sort of uh the roots of it. The the shoots are present, but it hasn't reached culmination.
43:41But as I say, you know, Netanyahu at any time the party I mean, he may actually leave the party because he's still concerned about the court case against him. He hasn't got the pardon. He hasn't been able to have the case removed from it by it's too late now to go to the Knesset and pass a law that will remove all the charges against him.
44:09Um and so he's concerned um that he might need to leave while he's still prime minister and is not expected to therefore admit guilt in the court otherwise he could end up going to prison. So, the whole thing is very febrile, I would say, the political fabric at the moment, quite febrile.
44:35>> And just just to interject, these are the corruption charges that have been leveled against Netanyahu that he's been fighting for some time and that Trump has called on the president of Israel to issue a pardon for Netanyahu, which has not been done.
44:52Uh I want to ask if you think the degrading of the military leadership under Hegseth, the degrading of the intelligence services uh in the United States in the Trump administration and the degrading of the diplomatic services in the State Department uh are compounding this crisis and how much that worries you.
45:20>> It it it it well we it's been visible for some time that um uh America as a whole, uh not just the military or the intelligence services, but institutions like Congress and everything have been in in in severe decline. Um you know, they're still there. They're still, you know, spending a lot of money.
45:49Um but this has been seen. I mean, you know, I know the Russians have seen it and the Chinese see it.
45:56Um and um does it worry me?
46:02Yes and no.
46:04Um Why it doesn't worries me so much is because I think we in the West, um including America, but including Europe, um are going to go through a period of catharsis. We we have to go through a period, um which might be quite tumultuous, but you know, the old um has gone past its sell-by date. The old structures, the old systems.
46:38And we need to an element of creative destruction, possibly, to try and think because there are too many contradictions, contradictions in the economic structure, the bi binary economic system, m- massive easy wealth for small elite, the ordinary Americans and Europeans uh struggle to to surviving. I mean, those are structures, contradictory structures with you know, you can't No party can come in tomorrow and say, "Oh, no, this is going to be the solution and we can resolve all that." It's you know, and the parties, certainly in Europe, are all Tweedledum and Tweedledee. So, o- ordinary Europeans just don't have any
47:26any any any real trust in that.
47:29So, if if this is what we might be facing, I think this will be partly destructive.
47:37I mean, it will be as as it goes into a process of catharsis, I think, you know, um dangerous emanations [clears throat] will take plot. It's like a sort of exploding star, and you have particles and energy sort of being thrown off by it, which worry um Russia and China um considerably. So, I think in in one respect, um you know, the decline is overdue.
48:09Um because unless we can move on from our from our very sort of nihilistic um um absolutely materialist and sort of increasingly corrupt um world to find something that, you know, a 20-year-old can understand or see the way ahead, um uh then it it can be quite dangerous.
48:37It'll be unpredictable, which is why I think I know Russia and China are are really um being extremely cautious um about it. So, um but on the good thing, I think it's very necessary.
48:56It's very very very necessary for us to go through this process. The question is, is it going to be more painful than it needs to be or less painful than it needs to be?
49:07Uh and I think so, you know, people [clears throat] often comment about Chinese caution, Russian caution, Putin's caution. They do understand, you know, the delicacy of the Western psyche, that it is quite delicate and can easily say, "Oh my god, you know, this is 9/11. This is terrible. We'll have to go all out or something like this."
49:33Uh and um you know, why they're so concerned about Europe, you know, with its endless narrative of war, war, war. We're all preparing for for war against Russia. Um this is what was coming. Even the British king came to Congress and said, "Yes, America must join with us in preparing for war against Russia."
49:57Why?
49:58What would he want to say that for? What Is that a European interest that we should prepare for a war against Russia?
50:06I Anyway, this is This is So, I think yes, it's visible. Yes, it's dangerous.
50:14Um but also it's possibly something that has to go. We have to go through to for a process of renewal. We've got to go through this I mean, all our institutions are tired.
50:29Uh the our civilizations lack energy, lack anima.
50:34Um how do we restore all that? Well, no one's got a simple answer to that, but this is the process we've got to start, I think, slowly addressing.
50:43Sorry, a longish answer to your question.
50:46>> great. Thank you. Thank you, Alister.
50:48Uh and I want to thank Max and Thomas and uh Noel who produced the show. You can find me at chrishedges.substack.com.
51:01>> [music]
Read the essay version →