John Mearsheimer argues that the US has suffered a catastrophic strategic failure in its Iran policy, allowing Iran to gain significant leverage and push the region toward nuclear proliferation.
0:10So, you have Trump's So, you have Trump's uh idiocy and impulsiveness. You have, uh idiocy and impulsiveness. You have, in your words, the fact that the Israel in your words, the fact that the Israel lobby still has a strangle hold on the lobby still has a strangle hold on the Trump White House and US policy. And of Trump White House and US policy. And of course the Israeli government is dead course the Israeli government is dead set against set against uh any kind of agreement with Iran. You uh any kind of agreement with Iran. You have uh demands uh by Iran and let's be have uh demands uh by Iran and let's be
0:37clear that Iran has been targeted for 47 clear that Iran has been targeted for 47 years. They've through sanctions and uh years. They've through sanctions and uh and and I think it appears that Iran has and and I think it appears that Iran has said enough. This is this is going to said enough. This is this is going to end. Um these are are big demands for end. Um these are are big demands for the United States.
0:55the United States.
0:55uh uh how do we limp forward? How does it go how do we limp forward? How does it go forward?
1:00forward?
1:00>> I don't know. You know, I mean, you >> I don't know. You know, I mean, you raised these issues at the beginning of raised these issues at the beginning of the program when you started talking the program when you started talking about the 10 point plan of the Iranians, about the 10 point plan of the Iranians, which President Trump was has said would which President Trump was has said would be the basis for the negotiations moving be the basis for the negotiations moving forward. Uh, I mean, just think about forward. Uh, I mean, just think about Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz,
1:22which effectively means they're going to which effectively means they're going to treat it uh as a pathway that has a toll treat it uh as a pathway that has a toll booth, an Iranian toll booth on it booth, an Iranian toll booth on it >> in in Chinese currency, not in the >> in in Chinese currency, not in the dollar.
1:33>> Yes. Are we going to tolerate that? Kind >> Yes. Are we going to tolerate that? Kind of hard to imagine, but uh maybe we'll of hard to imagine, but uh maybe we'll have to swallow on that one. Then have to swallow on that one. Then there's the subject of sanctions.
1:44there's the subject of sanctions.
1:44Are we really going to take sanctions Are we really going to take sanctions off Iran? Uh, and are we going to pay off Iran? Uh, and are we going to pay reparations to Iran? Uh, if that reparations to Iran? Uh, if that happens, isn't Iran over time likely to happens, isn't Iran over time likely to recover from the punishment that we have recover from the punishment that we have inflicted on its economy? And won't its inflicted on its economy? And won't its economy flourish? And won't this lead to economy flourish? And won't this lead to it becoming a more powerful state in the it becoming a more powerful state in the
2:11Middle East? And how will the Israelis Middle East? And how will the Israelis react to that? Uh, we're not going to do react to that? Uh, we're not going to do away with their nuclear enrichment away with their nuclear enrichment capability in Toto. I mean, they're capability in Toto. I mean, they're going to keep some nuclear enrichment going to keep some nuclear enrichment capability. The Israelis and the Hawks capability. The Israelis and the Hawks in the United States are never going to in the United States are never going to be happy with that. President Trump at be happy with that. President Trump at
2:31best, I think, is going to get an best, I think, is going to get an improved JCPOA.
2:36improved JCPOA.
2:36Can you sell that? Uh, furthermore, how Can you sell that? Uh, furthermore, how do you convince the Iranians that you're do you convince the Iranians that you're not going to pay them a return visit, not going to pay them a return visit, that there's not going to be a third that there's not going to be a third war? What do you do in that regard? What war? What do you do in that regard? What do you do with American bases in the do you do with American bases in the region? Uh, are we just going to leave region? Uh, are we just going to leave the region as they'd like us to, or are the region as they'd like us to, or are
2:57we going to stay there? And if we stay we going to stay there? And if we stay there, are they going to greatly there, are they going to greatly increase their ballistic missile force?
3:03increase their ballistic missile force?
3:03I think so. Oh, I think one could argue I think so. Oh, I think one could argue that even if we leave, they'll greatly that even if we leave, they'll greatly increase their ballistic missile force.
3:09increase their ballistic missile force.
3:09What are the Israelis going to do then?
3:12What are the Israelis going to do then?
3:12So, you can go on and on talking about So, you can go on and on talking about all of the really difficult issues that all of the really difficult issues that have to be solved. Uh and the question have to be solved. Uh and the question is h how do you solve them? How do you is h how do you solve them? How do you get some sort of meaningful peace get some sort of meaningful peace agreement here? Uh and even if you don't agreement here? Uh and even if you don't get a meaningful peace agreement, uh how get a meaningful peace agreement, uh how do you work out a frozen conflict? What do you work out a frozen conflict? What
3:32does a frozen conflict look like? And does a frozen conflict look like? And and how stable is that frozen conflict and how stable is that frozen conflict moving forward? I mean, I wish I could moving forward? I mean, I wish I could give you clear answers to this, Chris, give you clear answers to this, Chris, but when I look at it, I find it kind of but when I look at it, I find it kind of mind-boggling to try and figure out mind-boggling to try and figure out where this is all headed. Uh, and the where this is all headed. Uh, and the only thing I can say with a high degree only thing I can say with a high degree
3:55of certainty is it looks like one giant of certainty is it looks like one giant mess that's going to lead to endless mess that's going to lead to endless trouble.
4:02trouble.
4:02Do you limp forward with a ceasefire, a Do you limp forward with a ceasefire, a frozen conflict? Is that perhaps at the frozen conflict? Is that perhaps at the moment the best that we can hope for?
4:10moment the best that we can hope for?
4:10Yeah, I think that that's true. As I Yeah, I think that that's true. As I said before, the one possible factor said before, the one possible factor that uh offers hope uh is that if we are that uh offers hope uh is that if we are headed towards the iceberg and it looks headed towards the iceberg and it looks like we're going to hit the iceberg and like we're going to hit the iceberg and we have one last clear chance to veer we have one last clear chance to veer away from it, uh we may then put away from it, uh we may then put tremendous pressure on the Israelis to tremendous pressure on the Israelis to
4:34just uh just uh uh not say anything to to just accept uh not say anything to to just accept what we do and then we cut a deal with what we do and then we cut a deal with the Iranians. But that deal we would cut the Iranians. But that deal we would cut with the Iranians would be a deal that's with the Iranians would be a deal that's very favorable to them. Uh the key point very favorable to them. Uh the key point here is that the Iranians are in the here is that the Iranians are in the driver's seat. This is why I said you driver's seat. This is why I said you can't go up the escalation ladder and
4:56can't go up the escalation ladder and win against them. Uh you want to win against them. Uh you want to remember we came into this war with four remember we came into this war with four big demands. They had to do away with big demands. They had to do away with their nuclear enrichment capability their nuclear enrichment capability completely. They had to stop supporting completely. They had to stop supporting the Houthis, Hamas, and Hezbollah.
5:10the Houthis, Hamas, and Hezbollah.
5:10uh they had to get rid of their missiles uh they had to get rid of their missiles and furthermore there was going to be and furthermore there was going to be regime change. Those were the big four regime change. Those were the big four demands. The most important of which I demands. The most important of which I believe was regime change because if you believe was regime change because if you got regime change then in their story got regime change then in their story you could uh achieve the other three you could uh achieve the other three goals. But those were the big four goals. But those were the big four
5:26goals. We have failed on all four goals. We have failed on all four accounts.
5:30accounts.
5:30You just don't want to lose sight of You just don't want to lose sight of this. We have failed to achieve any of this. We have failed to achieve any of those goals. And in fact, one could those goals. And in fact, one could argue, Chris, that we have made the argue, Chris, that we have made the situation worse. uh in terms of situation worse. uh in terms of missiles, it would seem to me that the missiles, it would seem to me that the major lesson that the Iranians uh should major lesson that the Iranians uh should take from this conflict is that they take from this conflict is that they should build lots of missiles, lots of
5:52should build lots of missiles, lots of launchers, and hide them in missile launchers, and hide them in missile cities. Uh in terms of the nuclear cities. Uh in terms of the nuclear issue, one could argue that they if issue, one could argue that they if anything, they should have learned that anything, they should have learned that what they need is nuclear weapons. Uh what they need is nuclear weapons. Uh and this could be pushing them further and this could be pushing them further in that direction. And and then there's in that direction. And and then there's the whole question of the straight of
6:10the whole question of the straight of Hormuz. And it's important to emphasize Hormuz. And it's important to emphasize that in addition to failing to achieve that in addition to failing to achieve our four objectives, we're now in a our four objectives, we're now in a situation where the Iranians control the situation where the Iranians control the straight of Hormuz and have a toll booth straight of Hormuz and have a toll booth uh inserted in it. Uh which did not uh inserted in it. Uh which did not exist on February 27th. Uh and this is exist on February 27th. Uh and this is likely to remain in place. It's hard for
6:32likely to remain in place. It's hard for me to imagine them giving up the toll me to imagine them giving up the toll booth or giving up control of the booth or giving up control of the straight. Maybe they will because straight. Maybe they will because they'll get some other uh goodies in the they'll get some other uh goodies in the deal that is worked out. But we have deal that is worked out. But we have failed here. This has been a colossal failed here. This has been a colossal blunder. Uh and Trump is again now in a blunder. Uh and Trump is again now in a position where he's got the Israelis
6:53position where he's got the Israelis hemming him in on one side and he has hemming him in on one side and he has the potential of hitting that iceberg the potential of hitting that iceberg hemming him in on the other side. He has hemming him in on the other side. He has hardly any maneuver room and it's hardly hardly any maneuver room and it's hardly surprising therefore to see him behaving surprising therefore to see him behaving in more and more erratic ways looking in more and more erratic ways looking more and more like a mad king because he more and more like a mad king because he has put himself in an untenable
7:17has put himself in an untenable position.
7:20position.
7:20>> Is this our Suez crisis or are we not >> Is this our Suez crisis or are we not there yet? Is does the Suez crisis there yet? Is does the Suez crisis happen once we hit the iceberg?
7:27happen once we hit the iceberg?
7:27>> It's not our Suez crisis. I mean to >> It's not our Suez crisis. I mean to understand what happened at Suez you understand what happened at Suez you have to remember that Britain Britain have to remember that Britain Britain was a declining great power uh the was a declining great power uh the decline started around 1900 and it's decline started around 1900 and it's pretty much all downhill from 1900 pretty much all downhill from 1900 uh up until the present uh and uh uh up until the present uh and uh Britain in 1956 was not even a great Britain in 1956 was not even a great power. You remember well Chris we
7:55power. You remember well Chris we referred to the world that we lived in referred to the world that we lived in during the cold war as a bipolar system.
8:00during the cold war as a bipolar system.
8:00There were two great powers in the There were two great powers in the system. We called them superpowers.
8:05system. We called them superpowers.
8:05Those two great powers were the United Those two great powers were the United States and the Soviet Union. Britain was States and the Soviet Union. Britain was not even a great power. Uh and you not even a great power. Uh and you remember in 1968, this of course is 12 remember in 1968, this of course is 12 years after the Suez crisis, the British years after the Suez crisis, the British basically abandoned all their defense basically abandoned all their defense commitments east of Suez, east of the commitments east of Suez, east of the Suez Canal. Uh and this is because again Suez Canal. Uh and this is because again
8:27Britain is a declining great power. It's Britain is a declining great power. It's losing its military might. Its power losing its military might. Its power projection capability is greatly projection capability is greatly reduced. This is not what's happening to reduced. This is not what's happening to the United States. There's no question the United States. There's no question that the United States now has a peer that the United States now has a peer competitor in the system which is China competitor in the system which is China and Russia is also a great power. We're and Russia is also a great power. We're
8:47now in a multipolar world. U so the now in a multipolar world. U so the United States does have to deal with two United States does have to deal with two other great powers. But the United other great powers. But the United States is still a great power. It has a States is still a great power. It has a tremendous amount of power and that tremendous amount of power and that power is not going to go away.
9:04power is not going to go away.
9:04What's going on here is that the United What's going on here is that the United States, especially under President States, especially under President Trump, but even under President Biden, Trump, but even under President Biden, has lost its ability to employ that has lost its ability to employ that power in smart ways.
9:17power in smart ways.
9:17>> We behave in remarkably foolish ways.
9:20>> We behave in remarkably foolish ways.
9:20And this is true not just under Trump, And this is true not just under Trump, it was true under Biden as well. You it was true under Biden as well. You want to remember that Joe Biden is the want to remember that Joe Biden is the president who embraced president who embraced Prime Minister Netanyahu after October Prime Minister Netanyahu after October 7th. Yeah. And fully supported the 7th. Yeah. And fully supported the genocide in Gaza. And there were a genocide in Gaza. And there were a number of other policies including US number of other policies including US policy toward Iran where President Biden
9:44policy toward Iran where President Biden misbehaved or behaved in foolish ways misbehaved or behaved in foolish ways would be a better way to put it. But the would be a better way to put it. But the point is the United States is incredibly point is the United States is incredibly powerful and that's what makes President powerful and that's what makes President Trump so dangerous. And it's also what Trump so dangerous. And it's also what allows President Trump um to whiplash allows President Trump um to whiplash allies and adversaries alike to ignore allies and adversaries alike to ignore international law in international
10:08international law in international institutions. He can get away with all institutions. He can get away with all of this because we are so powerful.
10:12of this because we are so powerful.
10:12We're not, in my opinion, going to get We're not, in my opinion, going to get weaker with the passage of time. The weaker with the passage of time. The United States is going to remain a very United States is going to remain a very powerful state on uh the world stage and powerful state on uh the world stage and the only interesting question is will we the only interesting question is will we get our act together uh and act in get our act together uh and act in responsible ways which we have not been responsible ways which we have not been doing for a long time. Uh I don't hold doing for a long time. Uh I don't hold
10:37out much hope in that regard. Um but I out much hope in that regard. Um but I don't think it's uh it's a Suez moment.
10:43don't think it's uh it's a Suez moment.
10:43Uh Suez moment. I think the Suez moment Uh Suez moment. I think the Suez moment was just one giant step in the gradual was just one giant step in the gradual decline of British power uh over the decline of British power uh over the course of the 20th century.
Read the essay version →